New seat projections have revealed the Coalition faces near annihilation, while Pauline Hanson’s One Nation could secure more than 60 lower house seats.
New seat projection modelling has shown One Nation could win more than 60 seats at an election, while the Coalition could lose almost 40 MPS.
The latest Capital Brief / DemosAU modelling, based on 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations, projected One Nation could win between 54 and 63 lower house seats.
One Nation currently has two lower house MPs, Barnaby Joyce and David Farley, but did not win a single lower house seat in the 2025 federal election.
The Coalition could be reduced to between four and 11 seats, down sharply from the 16 to 28 seats projected in May.
The projections mean Liberal and National parties together risk losing almost 40 seats compared with the Coalition’s current representation.
Labor would secure between 71 and 81 seats if current polling trends were replicated at an election, according to the modelling.
Deputy leader of the Liberal Party Jane Hume told Sky News that One Nation has elected more than 50 candidates in the past but less than 10 lasted more than a term.
“One Nation have actually successfully elected over 50 people in the last decade or so, and yet fewer than 10 have actually lasted more than one term,” she said on Monday.
“Either they leave in a huff, they decide that the party isn’t for them, they don’t like an authoritarian regime that is imposed by the One Nation structure.
“Or One Nation realise that they were inappropriately selected in the first place. So let’s see how they go.”
Her comments came after former senior Victorian Liberal Party executive member Colleen Harkin quit the party after attending a One Nation event.
Watch ‘Politics Now’ on SkyNews.com.au
Dissect the most pressing topics debated in Question Time with Chief Election Analyst Tom Connell. Stream live and on-demand with a SkyNews.com.au Streaming Subscription. Already subscribed? Watch it here.
The DemosAU modelling was based on a June poll of 1,497 voters which put One Nation on 30 per cent of the primary vote, ahead of Labor on 27 per cent.
DemosAU Head of Research George Hasanakos said Labor remained the most likely party to form government, but One Nation was continuing to close the gap.
“On these numbers, One Nation would likely fall short of forming government, even with Coalition support,” he said.
“But a further improvement in support, or a further drop for Labor, could change the equation.”
The findings come after Sky News Pulse / YouGov poll conducted from June 9 to 16 showed One Nation had retained its lead as the country’s most popular party.
That survey placed One Nation on 28 per cent, ahead of Labor on 26 per cent, with the Coalition trailing on 21 per cent.
Despite One Nation’s lead on the primary vote, Labor maintained a 52-48 advantage on a two-party preferred basis against both the Coalition and One Nation among all voters.
Leave a Reply